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Expected Return Calculator

Enter your scenarios

Probability and return for each scenario

Give each possible outcome a probability and the return you would get if it happens. Probabilities must add up to 100%. Use a minus sign for a loss.

Scenario 1
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Scenario 2
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Scenario 3
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$

Shows the results in dollars as well. Use 0 to skip.

Your results

Expected return

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Standard deviation

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Expected gain

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Probabilities entered–
Variance–
Coefficient of variation–
Worst / best scenario–
Expected ending value–
Chance of a loss–

The expected return is a probability-weighted average of the scenarios, not a forecast of what will happen; the actual return will be one of the scenarios. Standard deviation measures how far the outcomes spread around that average.

Scenario breakdown

How much each scenario adds to the expected return and to the variance.

ScenarioProbabilityReturnWeighted returnDeviation from expectedWeighted squared deviation

Results are estimates for educational purposes and are not financial, tax or legal advice.

Enter possible outcomes with their probabilities to work out the expected return of an investment and how widely the results spread, measured by variance and standard deviation. The pivot point calculator online is free to use with no sign-up, and works on desktop and mobile.